Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.347978 1.416878 1.488198 1.567703 1.654055 1.745228 1.849057
2025-11-09 1.227832 1.323452 1.426455 1.546275 1.682611 1.833864 2.015691
2025-11-16 1.148359 1.258229 1.379735 1.525209 1.696175 1.892685 2.138564
2025-11-23 1.097907 1.219037 1.355909 1.523764 1.726536 1.966902 2.278606
2025-11-30 1.062766 1.193685 1.344425 1.533270 1.767137 2.052352 2.434918
2025-12-07 1.018705 1.154602 1.313416 1.515807 1.771573 2.090922 2.531692
2025-12-14 0.974873 1.113225 1.276921 1.488551 1.760637 2.107340 2.598044
2025-12-21 0.941128 1.082274 1.251233 1.472679 1.762145 2.138391 2.684368
2025-12-28 0.924255 1.070975 1.248846 1.485496 1.800581 2.219374 2.844720
2026-01-04 0.902745 1.052825 1.236746 1.484632 1.820013 2.274668 2.971266
2026-01-11 0.889638 1.044514 1.236462 1.498712 1.859631 2.359427 3.147133
2026-01-18 0.870399 1.027588 1.224231 1.495966 1.875361 2.410387 3.274609
2026-01-25 0.850265 1.009332 1.210181 1.490909 1.888614 2.460013 3.406935
2026-02-01 0.825267 0.984027 1.186008 1.470973 1.879579 2.475871 3.485807
2026-02-08 0.802038 0.960264 1.162982 1.451489 1.869886 2.489564 3.561323
2026-02-15 0.787179 0.946976 1.153382 1.450152 1.886323 2.543831 3.710247
2026-02-22 0.776997 0.939480 1.151191 1.458948 1.917880 2.623246 3.910579
2026-03-01 0.758311 0.920091 1.132156 1.442786 1.910734 2.639889 3.998066
2026-03-08 0.737312 0.897069 1.107478 1.417546 1.888440 2.630312 4.035273
2026-03-15 0.721003 0.879972 1.090476 1.402838 1.881660 2.645736 4.121214
2026-03-22 0.714629 0.876130 1.091662 1.414715 1.916734 2.733129 4.356485
2026-03-29 0.704305 0.866599 1.084556 1.413915 1.931470 2.786383 4.528679
2026-04-05 0.698991 0.863769 1.086728 1.426958 1.968859 2.881271 4.798659